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Article
Implications of ERM2 for Poland's Monetary Policy
WCBT Faculty Publications
  • Lucjan Orlowski, Sacred Heart University
  • Krzysztof Rybinski, National Bank of Poland
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
12-1-2006
Disciplines
Abstract

We propose an extension to the inflation targeting regime currently pursued by Poland. It incorporates the exchange rate stability constraints as imposed by the obligatory participation in the ERM2 that Poland needs to satisfy prior to adopting the euro. The modified policy is based on the forward-looking inflation targeting supplemented with the exchange rate stability objective. Its effective implementation depends on the determined long-term equilibrium exchange rate and the observed degree of exchange rate volatility. Both are empirically estimated by employing the Johansen cointegration tests and the threshold generalized autoregressive heteroscedasticity model with the in-mean extension and generalized error distribution (TGARCH-M-GED).

Comments

Version posted is William Davidson Institute Working Paper Number 802, December 2005.

DOI
10.1016/j.ecosys.2006.07.004
Citation Information
Orlowski, L. & Rybinski, K. (2006). Implications of ERM2 for Poland's monetary policy. Economic Systems, 30(4), 346-365. doi: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2006.07.004