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Unpublished Paper
How Default Probability Affects Returns on Loans
(2015)
  • Lester G Telser, University of Chicago
Abstract

Even the simplest kind of default as an independent random event poses difficulties. The correct formulas for the nominal return on a default free loan and the revisions to apply for a loan that may default follow from 2 assumptions. 1. A good now is better than a good later because survival from now to later is not sure. 2. Private loans occur only if the probability of default does not exceed an upper bound set by the reciprocal of the nominal return on a default free loan. This upper bound makes sense if and only if the nominal interest rate on a default free loan is positive. JEL E43 Interest Rates

Keywords
  • default probability,
  • nominal return
Publication Date
July, 2015
Citation Information
Lester G Telser. "How Default Probability Affects Returns on Loans" (2015)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/lester_telser/60/