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The impacts of biofuels targets on land-use change and food supply: A global CGE assessment
Agricultural Economics
  • Govinda R. Timilsina, The World Bank
  • John Beghin, Iowa State University
  • Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, United Nations
  • Simon Mevel, United Nations
Document Type
Article
Publication Version
Submitted Manuscript
Publication Date
1-1-2012
DOI
10.1111/j.1574-0862.2012.00585.x
Abstract

We analyze the long-term impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on land-use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a multi-country, multi-sector global computable general equilibrium model augmented with an explicit land-use module and detailed biofuel sectors. We find that an expansion of biofuel production to meet the existing or even higher targets in various countries would slightly reduce GDP at the global level but with mixed effects across countries or regions. Significant land re-allocation would take place with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries. The expansion of biofuels would cause a moderate decrease in world food supply and more significant decreases in developing countries like India and Sub-Saharan Africa. Feedstock commodities (sugar, corn and oil seeds) would experience significant increases in their prices in 2020, but other price changes are small.

Comments

This is a working paper of an article from Agricultural Economics 43 (2012): 315, doi:10.1111/j.1574-0862.2012.00585.x. Posted with permission

Copyright Owner
The Authors
Language
en
File Format
application/pdf
Citation Information
Govinda R. Timilsina, John Beghin, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe and Simon Mevel. "The impacts of biofuels targets on land-use change and food supply: A global CGE assessment" Agricultural Economics Vol. 43 Iss. 3 (2012) p. 315 - 332
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/john-beghin/110/