Assessing São Paulo´s Large Drop in Homicides: The Role of Demography and Policy Interventions

Joao M. De Mello, PUC-Rio
Alexandre Schneider, Prefeitura de São Paulo

Abstract

After reaching a historic peak by the end of the 1990s, homicides in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area (SMPA) dropped sharply in years 2000s. In this paper we list the most credible causes and assess critically their roles in explaining the large shift in homicides. We document several facts: 1) the scope of the movements in homicides is not restricted to SPMA, including other large cities in the State of São Paulo; 2) several policy changes possibly contributed to the drop in homicides in the 2000s in SPMA, but their timing exclude them as an explanation for the sure in the 1990s and for the shift in homicides in the late 1990s; in addition, 3) their narrow geographical scope exclude them as an explanation for the broad geographical movements in homicides; 4) economic conditions may have contributed to the increase in the 1990s but cannot account for the late 1990s shift; 5) age structure had a significant impact on homicides; 6) the time-series pattern of homicides in other states is similar to São Paulo´s, providing further support for a common-component explanation.