Battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles: Expert views on prospects for advancement
This is a prelimary version of the paper. The final version should be cited as follows: Erin Baker, Haewon Chon, Jeffrey Keisler, Battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles: Expert views about prospects for advancement, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 77, Issue 7, September 2010, Pages 1139-1146, ISSN 0040-1625, 10.1016/j.techfore.2010.02.005. (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004016251000034X) The full text version is available through the following link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004016251000034X
In this paper we present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for advances in battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles. We find disagreement among the experts on a wide range of topics, including the need for government funding, the probability of getting batteries with lithium metal anodes to work, and the probability of building safe Lithium-ion batteries. Averaging across experts we find that U.S. government expenditures of $150M/yr lead to a 66% chance of achieving a battery that costs less than $200/kWh, and a 20% chance for a cost of $90/kWh or less. Reducing the cost of batteries from a baseline of $384 to $200 could lead to a savings in the cost of reducing greenhouse gasses of about $100 Billion in 2050.
Erin D. Baker, Haewon Chon, and Jeffrey M. Keisler. "Battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles: Expert views on prospects for advancement" Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77.7 (2010): 1139-1146.
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/jeffrey_keisler/21