THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON STATES THAT MIGHT REQUIRE A DOMESTIC LEGAL RESPONSE: A REFLECTION BASED ON SCENARIOS

Javier de Cendra de Larragán, University College London

Abstract

This paper reflects on the potential usefulness of scenarios to facilitate thinking on the evolution of international climate change law in the next twenty years. One possible application of this tool is to help identify potential impacts stemming from international climate change law upon a number of key areas of interest for national governments that might require a legal response. While the paper does not build complete scenarios, it does perform a ‘state of science’ review that can pave the way for the development of scenarios. On the basis of that review, covering an analysis of scenarios prepared within other disciplines, key underlying trends in international law, international climate change law and international climate change negotiations, the paper sketches scenarios representing plausible developments of international climate law with a view to identify impacts upon key areas that may require responses within domestic law. It concludes by sketching some elements of a domestic response to the main impacts that might arise from international climate change law.