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We used 59 biographical variables to create a “bio-index” for forecasting U.S. presidential elections. The...
We conducted laboratory experiments to analyze the accuracy of three structured approaches (nominal groups, Delphi,...
We used the take-the-best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two party...
To forecast decisions in conflict situations, experts are often advised to figuratively stand in the...
We summarize evidence showing that the global warming alarm movement has more of the character...
Policymakers need to know whether prediction is possible and if so whether any proposed forecasting...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues facing...
In this year’s presidential election, as in 2004, the Pollyvote applied the evidence-based principle of...
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We assessed three important criteria of forecastability—simplicity, certainty, and variability. Climate is complex due to...
Prior research found that people's assessments of relative competence predicted the outcome of Senate and...
Calls to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species...
Prior research offers a mixed view of the value of expert surveys for long-term election...
This paper examines the feasibility of rule-based forecasting, a procedure that applies forecasting expertise and...
Traditional groups meetings are an inefficient and ineffective method for making forecasts and decisions. We...
In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes Working Group One, a panel of experts...
Jørgensen's paper examines the application of one of the most well established findings in forecasting—namely,...
Lichtman (2005) reports that the Keys model has been able to pick the winner of...
In important conflicts such as wars and labor-management disputes, people typically rely on the judgment...
The book assaults common sense with evidence. In order to mount his assault on accepted...
Over the past decade, researchers have expressed concerns over what seemed to be a paucity...
In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group One, a
panel of experts...
When financial columnist James Surowiecki wrote The Wisdom of Crowds, he wished to explain the...
Twenty-five years ago, the International Institute of Forecasters was established “to bridge the gap between...
Empirical comparisons of reasonable approaches provide evidence on the best forecasting procedures to use under...
The commentaries reinforce my belief that research evidence alone is not sufficient for organizations to...
Iraq continues to be in the news and confronts us with important questions about the...
Preview: Using findings from empirically-based comparisons, Scott develops nine generalizations that can improve forecast accuracy....
Using findings from empirically-based comparisons, Scott develops nine generalizations that can improve forecast accuracy. He...
Causal forces are a way of summarizing forecasters' expectations about what will happen to a...
In important conflicts, people typically rely on experts’ judgments to predict the decisions that adversaries...
When people forecast, they often use analogies but in an unstructured manner. We propose a...
Previous research has shown that seasonal factors provide one of the most important ways to...
It is often claimed that managers do not read serious research papers in journals. If...
Ray Fair is one of my favorite econometricians. He has an excellent website, fairmodel.econ.yale.edu,where he...
Green's study [Int. J. Forecasting (forthcoming)] on the accuracy of forecasting methods for conflicts does...
When causal forces are specified, the expected direction of the trend can be compared with...
To improve forecasting accuracy, combine forecasts derived from methods that differ substantially and draw from...
Rule-based forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses features of time series to select...
Ideally, forecasting methods should be evaluated in the situations for which they will be used....
Expert systems use rules to represent experts’ reasoning in solving problems. The rules are based...
Extrapolation methods are reliable, objective, inexpensive, quick, and easily automated. As a result, they are...
Judgmental bootstrapping is a type of expert system. It translates an expert=s rules into a...
Role playing can be used to forecast decisions, such as “how will our competitors respond...
Rule-Based Forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses judgment to develop and apply rules...
Accuracy, analogies, combined forecasts, conjoint analysis, cross-sectional data, econometric methods, experiments, expert systems, extrapolation, intentions,...
The M3-Competition continues to improve the design of forecasting competitions: It examines more series than...
One hundred and thirty-nine principles are used to summarize knowledge about forecasting. They cover formulating...
Rule-based forecasting (RBF) uses rules to combine forecasts from simple extrapolation methods. Weights for combining...
Rowe and Wright’s paper "The Delphi Technique as a Forecasting Tool" was initially reviewed by...
Those making environmental decisions must not only characterize the present, they must also forecast the...
We consider how judgment and statistical methods should be integrated for time-series forecasting. Our review...
Fildes, Hibon, Makridakis and Meade (1998), which will be referred to as FHMM, extends two...
Research with the potential to produce controversial findings is important to progress in the sciences....
Two studies were conducted to examine expert opinions of criteria used to select forecasting techniques....
Clements and Hendry (1993) proposed the Generalized Forecast Error Second Moment(GFESM) as an improvement to...
We hypothesized that multiplicative decomposition would improve accuracy only in certain conditions. In particular, we...
Research over two decades has advanced the knowledge of how to assess predictive validity. We...
A substantial effort has been devoted to agricultural forecasting over the past half century. Allen's...
This paper examines a strategy for structuring one type of domain knowledge for use in...
We report on the opinions of 49 forecasting experts on guidelines for extrapolation methods. They...
This study evaluated measures for making comparisons of errors across time series. We analyzed 90...
Direct assessment and protocol analysis were used to examine the processes that experts employ to...
A survey was conducted of New Zealand personnel consultants. Their beliefs about the validity of...
It seems trivial to point out that one of the major goals of the International...
The demand for research on forecasting is strong. This conclusion is based on the high...
The Great Depression of 1990 was on the New York Times best-seller list for non-fiction...
This paper reviews the empirical research on forecasting in marketing. In addition, it presents results...
In 1975, a consortium sponsored by the Argentine government tried to purchase the stock of...
Before 1960, little empirical research was done on forecasting methods. Since then, the literature has...
Sophisticated extrapolation techniques have had a negligible payoff for accuracy in forecasting. As a result,...
This book provides a convenient collection of important papers relevant to a subset of judgmental...
This paper identifies and analyzes previously published studies on annual earnings forecasts. Comparisons of forecasts...
In 1982, the Journal of Forecasting published the results of a forecasting competition organized by...
There exists a large number of quantitative extrapolative forecasting methods which may be applied in...
People are willing to pay heavily for expert advice. Economists are consulted to tell us...
This paper examines the additional evidence produced by the seven scientists on each of the...
Evidence from social psychology suggests that econometricians will avoid evidence that disconfirms their beliefs. Two...
The following hypotheses about long-range market forecasting were examined: Hl Objective methods provide more accuracy...
We examined the frequency of replications published in the two leading forecasting journals, the International...
The prevalence of faulty citations impedes the growth of scientific knowledge. Faulty citations include omissions...
The commentators raised many interesting ideas in response to Armstrong and Pagell (2003), from which...
Hartley, Trueman and Meadows [3] contribute useful evidence on whether scientists can gain prestige by...
This paper is an edited version of the College of Business Studies Silver Jubilee Commemoration...
I reviewed the published empirical evidence concerning journal peer review, which consisted of 68 papers,...
Management folklore sometimes leads to unprofitable decision making. Thus, studies of the value of such...
Brownlie and Saren (this issue) claim that "few innovative papers appear in the top marketing...
Replication is rare in marketing. Of 1,120 papers sampled from three major marketing journals, none...
Armstrong and Hubbard (1991), in a survey of editors of 20 psychology journals, found a...
Editorial procedures in the social and biomedical sciences are said to promote studies that falsely...
As Cicchetti indicates, agreement among reviewers is not high. This conclusion is empirically supported by...
When we first began publication of the International Journal of Forecasting, we reviewed policies that...
In general, I thought that the Boal and Willis "Note on the Armstrong/Mitroff Debate" provided...
Honesty is vital to scientific work and, clearly, most scientists are honest. However, recent publicity...
Recent research shows that journal reviewing practices are neither objective nor fair. I propose a...
Recently I completed a review of the empirical research on scientific journals (Armstrong 1982). This...
A review of editorial policies of leading journals and of research relevant to scientific journals...
A committee created a fictitious author, Ian Mitroff, who published a paper that violated scientific...
Modest support was found for the "Dr. Fox Phenomenon": Management scientists gain prestige by unintelligible...
Three strategies for scientific research in management are examined: advocacy, induction, and multiple hypotheses. Advocacy...
Based on a summary of prior literature, I conclude that tests of statistical significance harm...
The three commentators on my paper agree that statistical tests are often improperly used by...
The Neyman-Pearson theory of hypothesis testing, with the Type I error rate, α, as the...
Presents the "1973 Tom Swift Award for Data Abuse."
Introduction: Studies in marketing research often start with data rather than with a theory. This...
The importance of the researcher’s interpretation of factor analysis is illustrated by means of an...
Problems in the use of factor analysis for deriving theory are illustrated by means of...
Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are commonly used by...
In this book, Brandenburger and Nalebuff use game theory to develop a set of guidelines...
We examine how competitor-oriented objectives and the availability of competitor oriented information can affect managerial...
A quantitative critique of 28 studies concludes that formal planning is valuable for firms. The...
Corporate Strategic Planning (CSP) reports on an important study of planning practices and the value...
In Armstrong (1982a), I examined alternative explanations to the empirical findings that supported the use...
What evidence exists on the value of formal planning for strategic decision-making in marketing? This...
Individuals and organizations have operated for hundreds of years by planning and forecasting in an...
A review of research from organizational behavior supported the guidelines by corporate planners: that is,...
Our review of five experiments on the effects of mandatory disclaimers led us to conclude...
My review of empirical research on scientific publication led to the following conclusions. Three criteria...
This second edition of the Age of Propaganda is excellent. (Should I explicitly tell you...
In the work of Armstrong (Journal of Business Research, 2002), I examined empirical research on...
We examined three approaches to research in marketing: exploratory hypotheses, dominant hypothesis, and competing hypotheses....
Research on forecasting is extensive and includes many studies that have tested alternative methods in...
Rothenberg's book is a delight to read, and it provides a singular opportunity to compare...
Where can one find basic marketing principles? Up to now, my favorite source has been...
Members of professional groups were much more likely to respond to a mail survey than...
Subjects (n = 1015) working individually in the role of managers were asked to choose...
Wensley (1994) makes three key points. First, it is worthwhile to conduct empirical studies of...
We examined nine marketing textbooks, published since 1927, to see if they contained useful marketing...
Escalation bias implies that managers favor reinvestments in projects that are doing poorly over those...
Are those who are familiar with scientific research on consumer behavior better able to make...
In contrast to the conclusions from traditional reviews, meta-analysis shows that certain types of postage...
Role-playing and unaided opinions were used to forecast the outcome of three negotiations. Consistent with...
Kohn's No Contest reviews empirical research on competition. In fact, much work has been done...
This paper describes a five-step procedure for meta-analysis. Especially important was the contacting of authors...
Valid predictions for the direction of nonresponse bias were obtained from subjective estimates and extrapolations...
One hundred and fifty-one subjects were randomly divided into two groups of roughly equal size....
Eighteen empirical studies from fourteen different researchers provide evidence that prepaid monetary incentives have a...
This article presents a framework for the evaluation of quantitative models. The framework is both...
Introduction: In forecasting demand for expensive consumer goods, direct questioning of potential consumers about their...
This article compares the predictive ability of models developed by two different statistical methods, tree...
In most frequently purchased, branded product markets, the consumer has little to choose from in...
Introduction: With more and more firms contemplating expansion in the international market, the question of...
Ehrenberg's sweeping criticism of Markov brand switching models [3] highlights many shortcomings of these models...
Despite the lead article's title, “Validity Concerns and Usefulness of Student Ratings of Instruction” (Greenwald,...
Book review of Snapshots from hell by Peter Robinson. Published by Warner Books (New York),...
We examined the relationships between the research originating at business schools, students’ satisfaction with the...
Intentional Changes is an important book. It suggests different approaches to the way in which...
Formal education can be improved by transferring responsibility from the teacher to the learner. A...
In “natural learning” the learner takes responsibility for learning. This responsibility applies to setting objectives,...
Introduction: Experiential learning refers to learning which uses the learner’s experience as a base. This...
Introduction: Sports and war metaphors abound in business today. For example, one management book, Thunder...
"If you can't convince them, confuse them." Simply put, this is the advice that J....
Graffiti is regarded by many as a blight on our cities because it contributes to...
The Predatory Society examines the inadequacies of marketing and the free market system. It is...
Legal costs are now a major factor for U.S. firms to consider when marketing products...
Introduction: Norris Brisco, Melvin Copeland, Henry Erdman, Benjamin Hibbard, George Hotchkiss, Leverett Lyon, Stanley Resor,...
Previously published research suggested that the typical manager may be expected to harm others in...
An attitude survey and a role-playing case were used to identify the typical approaches people...
The Panalba-Role Playing Case was designed to get participants to examine their behavior in a...
