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We used 59 biographical variables to create a “bio-index” for forecasting U.S. presidential elections. The...
We conducted laboratory experiments to analyze the accuracy of three structured approaches (nominal groups, Delphi,...
We used the take-the-best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two party...
To forecast decisions in conflict situations, experts are often advised to figuratively stand in the...
We examined the frequency of replications published in the two leading forecasting journals, the International...
Policymakers need to know whether prediction is possible and if so whether any proposed forecasting...
In this year’s presidential election, as in 2004, the Pollyvote applied the evidence-based principle of...
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We assessed three important criteria of forecastability—simplicity, certainty, and variability. Climate is complex due to...
Prior research found that people's assessments of relative competence predicted the outcome of Senate and...
Calls to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species...
The prevalence of faulty citations impedes the growth of scientific knowledge. Faulty citations include omissions...
This paper examines the feasibility of rule-based forecasting, a procedure that applies forecasting expertise and...
Traditional groups meetings are an inefficient and ineffective method for making forecasts and decisions. We...
In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes Working Group One, a panel of experts...
Jørgensen's paper examines the application of one of the most well established findings in forecasting—namely,...
Lichtman (2005) reports that the Keys model has been able to pick the winner of...
In important conflicts such as wars and labor-management disputes, people typically rely on the judgment...
The book assaults common sense with evidence. In order to mount his assault on accepted...
Over the past decade, researchers have expressed concerns over what seemed to be a paucity...
Based on a summary of prior literature, I conclude that tests of statistical significance harm...
The three commentators on my paper agree that statistical tests are often improperly used by...
Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are commonly used by...
In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group One, a
panel of experts...
When financial columnist James Surowiecki wrote The Wisdom of Crowds, he wished to explain the...
The Neyman-Pearson theory of hypothesis testing, with the Type I error rate, α, as the...
Twenty-five years ago, the International Institute of Forecasters was established “to bridge the gap between...
Empirical comparisons of reasonable approaches provide evidence on the best forecasting procedures to use under...
The commentaries reinforce my belief that research evidence alone is not sufficient for organizations to...
Iraq continues to be in the news and confronts us with important questions about the...
Preview: Using findings from empirically-based comparisons, Scott develops nine generalizations that can improve forecast accuracy....
Using findings from empirically-based comparisons, Scott develops nine generalizations that can improve forecast accuracy. He...
Causal forces are a way of summarizing forecasters' expectations about what will happen to a...
When people forecast, they often use analogies but in an unstructured manner. We propose a...
Previous research has shown that seasonal factors provide one of the most important ways to...
It is often claimed that managers do not read serious research papers in journals. If...
Ray Fair is one of my favorite econometricians. He has an excellent website, fairmodel.econ.yale.edu,where he...
My review of empirical research on scientific publication led to the following conclusions. Three criteria...
The commentators raised many interesting ideas in response to Armstrong and Pagell (2003), from which...
This second edition of the Age of Propaganda is excellent. (Should I explicitly tell you...
In the work of Armstrong (Journal of Business Research, 2002), I examined empirical research on...
Green's study [Int. J. Forecasting (forthcoming)] on the accuracy of forecasting methods for conflicts does...
When causal forces are specified, the expected direction of the trend can be compared with...
We examined three approaches to research in marketing: exploratory hypotheses, dominant hypothesis, and competing hypotheses....
Rule-based forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses features of time series to select...
The M3-Competition continues to improve the design of forecasting competitions: It examines more series than...
One hundred and thirty-nine principles are used to summarize knowledge about forecasting. They cover formulating...
Rule-based forecasting (RBF) uses rules to combine forecasts from simple extrapolation methods. Weights for combining...
Rowe and Wright’s paper "The Delphi Technique as a Forecasting Tool" was initially reviewed by...
Research on forecasting is extensive and includes many studies that have tested alternative methods in...
Hartley, Trueman and Meadows [3] contribute useful evidence on whether scientists can gain prestige by...
Despite the lead article's title, “Validity Concerns and Usefulness of Student Ratings of Instruction” (Greenwald,...
This paper is an edited version of the College of Business Studies Silver Jubilee Commemoration...
Fildes, Hibon, Makridakis and Meade (1998), which will be referred to as FHMM, extends two...
In this book, Brandenburger and Nalebuff use game theory to develop a set of guidelines...
I reviewed the published empirical evidence concerning journal peer review, which consisted of 68 papers,...
Rothenberg's book is a delight to read, and it provides a singular opportunity to compare...
Management folklore sometimes leads to unprofitable decision making. Thus, studies of the value of such...
Research with the potential to produce controversial findings is important to progress in the sciences....
We examine how competitor-oriented objectives and the availability of competitor oriented information can affect managerial...
Two studies were conducted to examine expert opinions of criteria used to select forecasting techniques....
Brownlie and Saren (this issue) claim that "few innovative papers appear in the top marketing...
Book review of Snapshots from hell by Peter Robinson. Published by Warner Books (New York),...
Clements and Hendry (1993) proposed the Generalized Forecast Error Second Moment(GFESM) as an improvement to...
We hypothesized that multiplicative decomposition would improve accuracy only in certain conditions. In particular, we...
Where can one find basic marketing principles? Up to now, my favorite source has been...
Research over two decades has advanced the knowledge of how to assess predictive validity. We...
Replication is rare in marketing. Of 1,120 papers sampled from three major marketing journals, none...
A substantial effort has been devoted to agricultural forecasting over the past half century. Allen's...
Introduction: Sports and war metaphors abound in business today. For example, one management book, Thunder...
Members of professional groups were much more likely to respond to a mail survey than...
We examined the relationships between the research originating at business schools, students’ satisfaction with the...
Subjects (n = 1015) working individually in the role of managers were asked to choose...
Wensley (1994) makes three key points. First, it is worthwhile to conduct empirical studies of...
We examined nine marketing textbooks, published since 1927, to see if they contained useful marketing...
Escalation bias implies that managers favor reinvestments in projects that are doing poorly over those...
This paper examines a strategy for structuring one type of domain knowledge for use in...
Armstrong and Hubbard (1991), in a survey of editors of 20 psychology journals, found a...
We report on the opinions of 49 forecasting experts on guidelines for extrapolation methods. They...
This study evaluated measures for making comparisons of errors across time series. We analyzed 90...
Editorial procedures in the social and biomedical sciences are said to promote studies that falsely...
Are those who are familiar with scientific research on consumer behavior better able to make...
A quantitative critique of 28 studies concludes that formal planning is valuable for firms. The...
As Cicchetti indicates, agreement among reviewers is not high. This conclusion is empirically supported by...
The Predatory Society examines the inadequacies of marketing and the free market system. It is...
Corporate Strategic Planning (CSP) reports on an important study of planning practices and the value...
In contrast to the conclusions from traditional reviews, meta-analysis shows that certain types of postage...
Legal costs are now a major factor for U.S. firms to consider when marketing products...
A survey was conducted of New Zealand personnel consultants. Their beliefs about the validity of...
Role-playing and unaided opinions were used to forecast the outcome of three negotiations. Consistent with...
Kohn's No Contest reviews empirical research on competition. In fact, much work has been done...
It seems trivial to point out that one of the major goals of the International...
The demand for research on forecasting is strong. This conclusion is based on the high...
The Great Depression of 1990 was on the New York Times best-seller list for non-fiction...
This paper reviews the empirical research on forecasting in marketing. In addition, it presents results...
This paper describes a five-step procedure for meta-analysis. Especially important was the contacting of authors...
In Armstrong (1982a), I examined alternative explanations to the empirical findings that supported the use...
When we first began publication of the International Journal of Forecasting, we reviewed policies that...
Before 1960, little empirical research was done on forecasting methods. Since then, the literature has...
Sophisticated extrapolation techniques have had a negligible payoff for accuracy in forecasting. As a result,...
This book provides a convenient collection of important papers relevant to a subset of judgmental...
This paper identifies and analyzes previously published studies on annual earnings forecasts. Comparisons of forecasts...
In general, I thought that the Boal and Willis "Note on the Armstrong/Mitroff Debate" provided...
Honesty is vital to scientific work and, clearly, most scientists are honest. However, recent publicity...
Intentional Changes is an important book. It suggests different approaches to the way in which...
Formal education can be improved by transferring responsibility from the teacher to the learner. A...
In 1982, the Journal of Forecasting published the results of a forecasting competition organized by...
An attitude survey and a role-playing case were used to identify the typical approaches people...
Recent research shows that journal reviewing practices are neither objective nor fair. I propose a...
A review of research from organizational behavior supported the guidelines by corporate planners: that is,...
Recently I completed a review of the empirical research on scientific journals (Armstrong 1982). This...
There exists a large number of quantitative extrapolative forecasting methods which may be applied in...
A review of editorial policies of leading journals and of research relevant to scientific journals...
A committee created a fictitious author, Ian Mitroff, who published a paper that violated scientific...
People are willing to pay heavily for expert advice. Economists are consulted to tell us...
"If you can't convince them, confuse them." Simply put, this is the advice that J....
Modest support was found for the "Dr. Fox Phenomenon": Management scientists gain prestige by unintelligible...
Three strategies for scientific research in management are examined: advocacy, induction, and multiple hypotheses. Advocacy...
In “natural learning” the learner takes responsibility for learning. This responsibility applies to setting objectives,...
This paper examines the additional evidence produced by the seven scientists on each of the...
Evidence from social psychology suggests that econometricians will avoid evidence that disconfirms their beliefs. Two...
Graffiti is regarded by many as a blight on our cities because it contributes to...
Previously published research suggested that the typical manager may be expected to harm others in...
Valid predictions for the direction of nonresponse bias were obtained from subjective estimates and extrapolations...
The Panalba-Role Playing Case was designed to get participants to examine their behavior in a...
One hundred and fifty-one subjects were randomly divided into two groups of roughly equal size....
Eighteen empirical studies from fourteen different researchers provide evidence that prepaid monetary incentives have a...
Presents the "1973 Tom Swift Award for Data Abuse."
This article presents a framework for the evaluation of quantitative models. The framework is both...
The following hypotheses about long-range market forecasting were examined: Hl Objective methods provide more accuracy...
Introduction: In forecasting demand for expensive consumer goods, direct questioning of potential consumers about their...
This article compares the predictive ability of models developed by two different statistical methods, tree...
In most frequently purchased, branded product markets, the consumer has little to choose from in...
Introduction: Studies in marketing research often start with data rather than with a theory. This...
Introduction: With more and more firms contemplating expansion in the international market, the question of...
Ehrenberg's sweeping criticism of Markov brand switching models [3] highlights many shortcomings of these models...
The importance of the researcher’s interpretation of factor analysis is illustrated by means of an...
Problems in the use of factor analysis for deriving theory are illustrated by means of...
In important conflicts, people typically rely on experts’ judgments to predict the decisions that adversaries...
To improve forecasting accuracy, combine forecasts derived from methods that differ substantially and draw from...
Ideally, forecasting methods should be evaluated in the situations for which they will be used....
Expert systems use rules to represent experts’ reasoning in solving problems. The rules are based...
Extrapolation methods are reliable, objective, inexpensive, quick, and easily automated. As a result, they are...
Judgmental bootstrapping is a type of expert system. It translates an expert=s rules into a...
Role playing can be used to forecast decisions, such as “how will our competitors respond...
Rule-Based Forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses judgment to develop and apply rules...
Accuracy, analogies, combined forecasts, conjoint analysis, cross-sectional data, econometric methods, experiments, expert systems, extrapolation, intentions,...
Those making environmental decisions must not only characterize the present, they must also forecast the...
We consider how judgment and statistical methods should be integrated for time-series forecasting. Our review...
Direct assessment and protocol analysis were used to examine the processes that experts employ to...
In 1975, a consortium sponsored by the Argentine government tried to purchase the stock of...
What evidence exists on the value of formal planning for strategic decision-making in marketing? This...
Individuals and organizations have operated for hundreds of years by planning and forecasting in an...
Introduction: Norris Brisco, Melvin Copeland, Henry Erdman, Benjamin Hibbard, George Hotchkiss, Leverett Lyon, Stanley Resor,...
Introduction: Experiential learning refers to learning which uses the learner’s experience as a base. This...
Our review of five experiments on the effects of mandatory disclaimers led us to conclude...
We summarize evidence showing that the global warming alarm movement has more of the character...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues facing...
Prior research offers a mixed view of the value of expert surveys for long-term election...
