Econometric Forecasting and the Science Court

J. Scott Armstrong, University of Pennsylvania

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Postprint version. Published in Journal of Business, Volume 51, Issue 4, October 1978, pages 595-600.
Publisher URL: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/

Abstract

This paper examines the additional evidence produced by the seven scientists on each of the issues.The issues were:

(1) "Should econometricians use the method of multiple hypotheses rather than advocacy?" (2) "Do econometric methods provide the most accurate approach to short-range forecasting" (Table 2 of "Folklore versus Fact")? (3) "Are complex econometric methods more accurate than simple econometric methods" (Table 4 of "Folklore versus Fact")?