Effects of portfolio planning methods on decision making: experimental results

J. Scott Armstrong, University of Pennsylvania
Roderick J. Brodie, University of Auckland

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Postprint version. Published in International Journal of Research in Marketing, Volume 11, Issue 1, January 1994, pages 73-84.
Publisher URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0167-8116(94)90035-3

Abstract

Subjects (n = 1015) working individually in the role of managers were asked to choose between investment opportunities that would either double their investment or cause the loss of half of it. Six administrators ran experiments on 27 occasions in six countries over a five-year period. Information about the BCG matrix increased the subjects' likelihood of selecting the project that was clearly less profitable. Of subjects exposed to the BCG matrix, 64% selected the unprofitable investment. Of subjects who used the BCG matrix in their analysis, 87% selected the less profitable investment.