Articles «Previous Next»

A Note on the Use of Markov Chains in Forecasting Store Choice

J. Scott Armstrong, University of Pennsylvania
John U. Farley, University of Pennsylvania

Article comments

Postprint version. Published in Management Science, Volume 16, Issue 4, December 1969, B-281 to B-285.
Publisher URL: http://mansci.journal.informs.org/

Abstract

Ehrenberg's sweeping criticism of Markov brand switching models [3] highlights many shortcomings of these models for aggregate analysis of consumer behavior. While it has been pointed out that some of his criticisms are not entirely correct [13], one of Ehrenberg's themes is unquestionably valid. The models tend to break down empirically due to violations of important Markovian stability assumptions [14]. A situation in which the assumptions of the model appear less restrictive is short-run forecasting of store choice behavior of individual families.

Suggested Citation

J. Scott Armstrong and John U. Farley. "A Note on the Use of Markov Chains in Forecasting Store Choice" Marketing Papers (1969).
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/j_scott_armstrong/42