Forecasting Software Development Work Effort: Introduction

J. Scott Armstrong, University of Pennsylvania

Abstract

Jørgensen's paper examines the application of one of the most well established findings in forecasting—namely, the superior accuracy of quantitative models in comparison to judgmental forecasts. Models improved the accuracy in 72% of the 136 studies in the meta-analysis by Grove, Zald, Lebow, Snitz, and Nelson (2000). However, in Jørgensen's meta-analysis, which is restricted to forecasts of software effort, models were superior for only 38% of the studies.