Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from Twenty-five Years of Research
Postprint version. Published in Interfaces, Volume 14, Issue 6, November 1984, pages 52-66.
Publisher URL: http://www.aaai.org/AITopics/html/interfaces.html
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Sophisticated extrapolation techniques have had a negligible payoff for accuracy in forecasting. As a result, major changes are proposed for the allocation of the funds for future research on extrapolation. Meanwhile, simple methods and the combination of forecasts are recommended.
J. Scott Armstrong. "Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from Twenty-five Years of Research" Marketing Papers (1984).
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/j_scott_armstrong/131