The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts?

Kesten Green, Monash University
J. Scott Armstrong, University of Pennsylvania

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Reprinted from Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 2, October 2005, pages 50-52. Publisher URL: http://ideas.repec.org/s/for/ijafaa.html Permission granted by publisher to author.

Abstract

Iraq continues to be in the news and confronts us with important questions about the predictability of decisions people make in conflict situations. For some, the plan to invade Iraq was based on poor forecasts about how troops would be received: reasonable people would not have made optimistic forecasts. Others, however, assert that it is hindsight bias that makes the prognosis so clear.