Professor Armstrong is internationally known for his pioneering work on forecasting methods. He is author of Long-Range Forecasting, the most frequently cited book on forecasting methods, and Principles of Forecasting, voted the "Favorite Book – First 25 Years" by researchers and practitioners associated with the International Institute of Forecasters. He is a co-founder of the Journal of Forecasting, the International Journal of Forecasting, the International Symposium on Forecasting, and forecastingprinciples.com. He is a co-developer of new methods including rule-based forecasting, causal forces for extrapolation, simulated interaction, and structured analogies.
Forecasting
Predicting Elections from Politicians’ Faces, International Journal of Public Opinion Research (2010)
Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates: A test of the index method, Journal of Business Research (2010)
We used 59 biographical variables to create a “bio-index” for forecasting U.S. presidential elections. The...
Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task, International Journal of Forecasting (2010)
We conducted laboratory experiments to analyze the accuracy of three structured approaches (nominal groups, Delphi,...
Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take-the-best heuristic, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making (2010)
We used the take-the-best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two party...
Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts, International Journal of Forecasting (2010)
To forecast decisions in conflict situations, experts are often advised to figuratively stand in the...
Scientific Methods
Replications of Forecasting Research, International Journal of Forecasting (2009)
We examined the frequency of replications published in the two leading forecasting journals, the International...
Verification of Citations: Fawlty Towers of Knowledge, Interfaces (2008)
The prevalence of faulty citations impedes the growth of scientific knowledge. Faulty citations include omissions...
Replication Research in Marketing Revisited: A Note on a Disturbing Trend (with Heiner Evanschitzky, Carsten Baumgarth, and Raymond Hubbard), Marketing Papers (2007)
Over the past decade, researchers have expressed concerns over what seemed to be a paucity...
Incentives for Developing and Communicating Principles: A Reply, Marketing Papers (2003)
The commentators raised many interesting ideas in response to Armstrong and Pagell (2003), from which...
Readability and Prestige in Scientific Journals, Marketing Papers (1999)
Hartley, Trueman and Meadows [3] contribute useful evidence on whether scientists can gain prestige by...
Applied Statistics
Significance Tests Harm Progress in Forecasting, Marketing Papers (2007)
Based on a summary of prior literature, I conclude that tests of statistical significance harm...
Statistical Significance Tests are Unnecessary Even When Properly Done and Properly Interpreted: Reply to Commentaries, Marketing Papers (2007)
The three commentators on my paper agree that statistical tests are often improperly used by...
Why We Don’t Really Know What "Statistical Significance" Means: A Major Educational Failure (with Raymond Hubbard), Marketing Papers (2006)
The Neyman-Pearson theory of hypothesis testing, with the Type I error rate, α, as the...
Tom Swift and his electric regression analysis machine: 1973, Marketing Papers (1975)
Presents the "1973 Tom Swift Award for Data Abuse."
How to avoid exploratory research, Marketing Papers (1970)
Introduction: Studies in marketing research often start with data rather than with a theory. This...
Strategic Planning
Competitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share, International Journal of Business (2007)
Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are commonly used by...
Competitor-oriented objectives: the myth of market share (with Kesten C. Green), Marketing Papers (2006)
Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are commonly used by...
Review of Barry J. Nalebuff and Adam N. Brandenburger, Co-opetition 1. Revolutionary Mindset that Redefines Competition and Co-operation 2. The Game Theory Strategy that's Changing the Game of Business (with Terry Clark), Marketing Papers (1997)
In this book, Brandenburger and Nalebuff use game theory to develop a set of guidelines...
Competitor Orientation: Effects of Objectives and Information on Managerial Decisions and Profitability (with Fred Collopy), Marketing Papers (1996)
We examine how competitor-oriented objectives and the availability of competitor oriented information can affect managerial...
Marketing
Effects of mandatory disclaimers in advertising (2010)
Our review of five experiments on the effects of mandatory disclaimers led us to conclude...
Using Quasi-Experimental Data To Develop Empirical Generalizations For Persuasive Advertising, Journal of Advertising Research (2009)
Discovery and communication of important marketing findings: evidence and proposals, Marketing Papers (2003)
My review of empirical research on scientific publication led to the following conclusions. Three criteria...
Education
Are student ratings of instruction useful?, Marketing Papers (1998)
Despite the lead article's title, “Validity Concerns and Usefulness of Student Ratings of Instruction” (Greenwald,...
The devil's advocate responds to an MBA student’s claim that research harms learning, Marketing Papers (1995)
Book review of Snapshots from hell by Peter Robinson. Published by Warner Books (New York),...
Business school prestige -- research versus teaching (with Tad Sperry), Marketing Papers (1994)
We examined the relationships between the research originating at business schools, students’ satisfaction with the...
Review of Allen Tough, Intentional Changes: A Fresh Approach to Helping People Change, Marketing Papers (1983)
Intentional Changes is an important book. It suggests different approaches to the way in which...
Learner responsibility in management education, or ventures into forbidden research (with comments), Marketing Papers (1983)
Formal education can be improved by transferring responsibility from the teacher to the learner. A...
Communications
The profitability of winning (with Fred Collopy), Marketing Papers (1994)
Introduction: Sports and war metaphors abound in business today. For example, one management book, Thunder...
Bafflegab Pays, Marketing Papers (1980)
"If you can't convince them, confuse them." Simply put, this is the advice that J....
The Graffiti Solution, Marketing Papers (1978)
Graffiti is regarded by many as a blight on our cities because it contributes to...
Social Responsibility
Review of Paul Bloomberg, The Predatory Society: Deception in the American Marketplace (with Bernard J. Jaworski), Marketing Papers (1990)
The Predatory Society examines the inadequacies of marketing and the free market system. It is...
Review of Peter W. Huber, Liability: The Legal Revolution and Its Consequences (with Bernard J. Jaworski), Marketing Papers (1990)
Legal costs are now a major factor for U.S. firms to consider when marketing products...
The manager's dilemma: role conflict in marketing, Future Directions for Marketing (1978)
Introduction: Norris Brisco, Melvin Copeland, Henry Erdman, Benjamin Hibbard, George Hotchkiss, Leverett Lyon, Stanley Resor,...
Social irresponsibility in management, Marketing Papers (1977)
Previously published research suggested that the typical manager may be expected to harm others in...
Organizational Behavior
Strategies for implementing change: an experiential approach, Marketing Papers (1982)
An attitude survey and a role-playing case were used to identify the typical approaches people...
Cases
The Panalba Role-Playing Case, Marketing Papers (1976)
The Panalba-Role Playing Case was designed to get participants to examine their behavior in a...
No subject area
Portfolio Planning Methods: Faulty Approach or Faulty Research? A Rejoinder to "Making Better Decisions" by Wensley (with Roderick J. Brodie), Marketing Papers (1994)
Wensley (1994) makes three key points. First, it is worthwhile to conduct empirical studies of...