Thesis
Uncertainty assessment in biomass estimation
(2018)
Abstract
Carbon stock is the carbon stored in one of the major phases of the carbon cycle, and flux is the movement of carbon between these phases. This study will use a similar model to one previously developed by Gonzalez et al. (2015) to estimate carbon stock and flux in the aboveground living biomass of the State of California and evaluate the uncertainty associated with these estimations. It is important to understand the methods involved in calculating carbon stock and the accompanying uncertainty to determine the best uses for mapping products of forest biomass in California, which is directed by California Assembly Bill 32 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. An important part of this is understanding the carbon budget, which involves using emissions and storage potential in ecosystems to determine the amount of allowable anthropogenic carbon emissions that will keep climate change tolerable. This, in turn, requires assessing the state’s carbon stock. Flux estimates will give an idea of changes and trends in stock over time, as well as the amount of carbon lost to the atmosphere through wildfires and timber harvests. Methods will follow those of Gonzalez et al. (2015) and Saah et al. (2015). Following these papers, Monte Carlo analysis will be the method of choice for quantifying uncertainty. This study found a net loss of 78.21 ± 449.94 Tg carbon, mostly in areas of intense wildfire. These findings will contribute to the general understanding of uncertainty involved in biomass calculations and help determine the sources of uncertainty in carbon stock estimates, and will be directly helpful to the California Air Resources Board for understanding ecosystem sources and sinks for carbon and making policy decisions accordingly. Based on these findings, less fire suppression, increased management regimes, and increased use of wood products as substitutes for more commonly used construction materials and fuels are suggested as potential management considerations for lowering forest carbon emissions.
Keywords
- Biomass,
- Carbon,
- Carbon Stock,
- Carbon Flux
Disciplines
Publication Date
Spring May 23, 2018
Degree
Masters of Science in Environmental Management
Field of study
Environmental Management
Department
College of Arts and Sciences
Advisor
Amalia Kokkinaki, Ph.D.
Citation Information
Isaac Lisle. "Uncertainty assessment in biomass estimation" (2018) Available at: http://works.bepress.com/isaac-lisle/1/