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Article
Global Sensitivity Analysis of Jointed Plain Concrete Pavement Mechanistic-Empirical Performance Predictions
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
  • Halil Ceylan, Iowa State University
  • Kasthurirangan Gopalakrishnan, Iowa State University
  • Sunghwan Kim, Iowa State University
  • Charles W. Schwartz, University of Maryland - College Park
  • Rui Li, University of Maryland - College Park
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
1-1-2013
DOI
10.3141/2367-12
Abstract

The new AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) provides pavement analysis and performance predictions for various what-if scenarios. MEPDG performance predictions for anticipated climatic and traffic conditions will depend on the values of the input parameters that characterize pavement materials, layers, design features, and condition. A comprehensive global sensitivity analysis methodology is proposed for evaluating performance predictions for jointed plain concrete pavement to MEPDG inputs for five climatic conditions and three traffic levels. MEPDG inputs evaluated in the analysis include traffic volume, layer thicknesses, material properties, groundwater depth, and geometric parameters. Correlations between MEPDG inputs were considered as appropriate. The global sensitivity analysis varied all inputs simultaneously across the problem domain for each of the 15 base cases (five climates × three traffic levels). Two response surface modeling approaches, multivariate linear regressions and artificial neural networks, were developed for evaluation of MEPDG input sensitivities across the problem domain. The response surface modeling approaches based on artificial neural networks not only provided robust and accurate representations of the complex relationships between MEPDG inputs and distress outputs but also captured the variation in sensitivity across the problem domain. The normalized sensitivity index for the design limit proposed in the study provides practical interpretation of sensitivity by relating a given percentage change in an MEPDG design input to the corresponding percentage change in predicted distress relative to its design limit value.

Comments

This article is from Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2367 (2013): 113-122, doi: 10.3141/2367-12. Posted with permission.

Copyright Owner
National Academy of Sciences
Language
en
File Format
application/pdf
Citation Information
Halil Ceylan, Kasthurirangan Gopalakrishnan, Sunghwan Kim, Charles W. Schwartz, et al.. "Global Sensitivity Analysis of Jointed Plain Concrete Pavement Mechanistic-Empirical Performance Predictions" Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board Vol. 2367 (2013) p. 113 - 122
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/halil_ceylan/269/