Forecasting the Storm: Power Cycle Theory and Conflict in the Major Power System

Dylan Kissane, University of South Australia

Abstract

Just as picnickers and holiday makers regularly curse TV weather presenters for failing to forecast the rainstorms that detract from the happy times which were planned. If international relations can be imagined as a peaceful picnic, then conflict is the storm that wrecks havoc among family and friends. The goal, then, of those within the discipline who study conflict is to forecast these international storms and, in power cycle theory, there exists a method which is of some utility to this end. This paper introduces power cycle theory, explaining its components and methodology before introducing the specific changes to the method that are the result of the author’s Honours research. The strong, positive correlation between conflict and ‘critical points’ on the power cycles of states is established and it is concluded that this reformulated power cycle theory may provide analysts with the ability to ‘forecast the storms’ of international power politics.