Offensive Realism and Central & Eastern Europe after the Cold War

Dylan Kissane, University of South Australia

Abstract

At the end of the Cold War, John Mearsheimer published the article, “Back to the Future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War”. The widely-cited piece included four predictions for the post-Cold War European geopolitical landscape founded on the theory of offensive realism, the realpolitik approach that Mearsheimer had established and developed over more than a decade of scholarship. However, the emergence of a post-Cold War and pan-continental peace suggests that something was wrong with Mearsheimer’s predictions and, by implication, the theory that informed them. This article argues that Mearsheimer’s mistake was to rely on a theory that assumed the international system is anarchic. Instead, if the international system is assumed to be chaotic then it is possible to not only offer clear explanations as to why Mearsheimer’s predictions were wrong but also to offer a justification for the order that did indeed emerge.