The Balkan Bullet with Butterfly Wings

Dylan Kissane, University of South Australia

Abstract

In physics, biology and meteorology, scientists have come to understand that the natural systems they study can be extremely sensitive to small events. The so-called ‘butterfly effect’ is testament to such seemingly insignificant events having significant implications for the wider system. Such knowledge has led to an interest in the natural sciences in both chaotic and complex systems and, in turn, has led to social scientists searching for parallels in the systems they examine. However, within the field of international relations theory, there has been little attempt to move towards such new understandings and away from a fundamental belief in anarchy as the defining feature of international politics. This paper offers a critique of this almost-discipline wide stance, drawing on inter-disciplinary approach and suggesting that in the example of the origins of World War One there exists evidence for an international system that is something other than anarchical.