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Article
Estimating methane emissions from biological and fossil-fuel sources in the San Francisco Bay Area
Geophysical Research Letters (2017)
  • Seongeun Jeong, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
  • Xinguang Cui, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
  • Donald R. Blake, University of California, Irvine
  • Ben Miller, Earth System Research laboratory
  • Stephen A. Montzka, Earth System Research Laboratory
  • Arlyn Andrews, Earth System Research Laboratory
  • Abhinav Guha, Bay Area Air Quality Management District
  • Philip Martien, Bay Area Air Quality Management District
  • Ray P. Bambha, Sandia National Laboratories
  • Brian LaFranchi, Sandia National Laboratories
  • Hope A. Michelsen, Sandia National Labortories
  • Craig B. Clements, San Jose State University
  • Pierre Glaize, San Jose State University
  • Marc L. Fischer, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Abstract
We present the first sector-specific analysis of methane (CH4) emissions from the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) using CH4 and volatile organic compound (VOC) measurements from six sites during September – December 2015. We apply a hierarchical Bayesian inversion to separate the biological from fossil-fuel (natural gas and petroleum) sources using the measurements of CH4 and selected VOCs, a source-specific 1 km CH4 emission model, and an atmospheric transport model. We estimate that SFBA CH4 emissions are 166–289 Gg CH4/yr (at 95% confidence), 1.3–2.3 times higher than a recent inventory with much of the underestimation from landfill. Including the VOCs, 82 ± 27% of total posterior median CH4 emissions are biological and 17 ± 3% fossil fuel, where landfill and natural gas dominate the biological and fossil-fuel CH4 of prior emissions, respectively.


Publication Date
January 16, 2017
DOI
10.1002/2016GL071794
Publisher Statement
© Copyright 2016 American Geophysical Union. All rights reserved. 

This article was published in Geophysical Research Letters, volume 44, issue 1, 2017, and can be found online at the following link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071794.
Citation Information
Seongeun Jeong, Xinguang Cui, Donald R. Blake, Ben Miller, et al.. "Estimating methane emissions from biological and fossil-fuel sources in the San Francisco Bay Area" Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 44 Iss. 1 (2017) p. 486 - 495 ISSN: 0094-8276
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/craig_clements/36/