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Article
Dictators and Death: Casualty Sensitivity of Autocracies in Militarized Interstate Disputes
International Studies Quarterly (2015)
  • Cigdem V. Sirin, University of Texas at El Paso
  • Michael T. Koch, Texas A & M University - College Station
Abstract
In this study, we develop a theoretical model based on an inverse divide-the-dollar game (vis-à-vis the distribution of public “bads”) to explore the propensity of different authoritarian regime types to sustain casualties in interstate conflicts. We argue that the smaller the size of an authoritarian leader’s winning coalition, the easier it is for such leader to distribute the costs of militarized conflicts outside of her/his supporters. In line with our theoretical expectations, we find personalist regimes tend to sustain the highest number of casualties in militarized interstate disputes compared to other autocracies. Given that casualties significantly affect the onset, severity, duration, and outcome of militarized conflicts, as well as the post-conflict fate of leaders, our theoretical framework and empirical findings offer a deeper understanding of conflict processes and behavior.
Keywords
  • autocracies,
  • casualties,
  • conflict behavior,
  • militarized interstate disputes,
  • regime type,
  • winning coalition
Publication Date
2015
Citation Information
Cigdem V. Sirin and Michael T. Koch. "Dictators and Death: Casualty Sensitivity of Autocracies in Militarized Interstate Disputes" International Studies Quarterly Vol. 59 Iss. 4 (2015) p. 802 - 814
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/cigdemvsirin/17/