An Empirical Examination of Religion and Conflict in the Middle East, 1950-1992

Brian Lai, University of Iowa

Abstract

This article examines the influence of religion on conflict in the Middle East. It develops a more refined approach to studying the effects of religion by examining intra-Islamic differences as well as the effects of domestic politics and religion on conflict. It tests these hypotheses on all Middle Eastern dyads from 1950 to 1992, including appropriate control variables. This article finds that religious identity does matter but only when its relationship with conflict is more clearly specified. Religious differences between the leaders of states influence the likelihood of militarized disputes, but not religious differences between the populations of two states. Ethnic differences and power politics also influence the likelihood of an militarized interstate dispute.