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Article
How to Predict Future Duration from Present Age
The Philosophical Quarterly (2006)
  • Bradley Monton, University of Kentucky
  • Brian Kierland
Abstract

The physicist J. Richard Gott has given an argument which, if good, allows one to make accurate predictions for the future longevity of a process, based solely on its present age. We show that there are problems with some of the details of Gott's argument, but we defend the core thesis: in many circumstances, the greater the present age of a process, the more likely a longer future duration.

Publication Date
January, 2006
Citation Information
Bradley Monton and Brian Kierland. "How to Predict Future Duration from Present Age" The Philosophical Quarterly Vol. 56 Iss. 222 (2006)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/brian_kierland/4/