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Article
What Drives Gold Returns? A Decision Tree Analysis
Financial Research Letters
  • Anastasios G Malliaris, Loyola University Chicago
  • Mary Malliaris, Loyola University Chicago
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
3-1-2015
Pages
45-53
Disciplines
Abstract

The behavior of gold as an investment asset has been researched extensively. For the very long run, that is several decades, gold does not outperform equities. However, for shorter periods, gold responds to fears of inflation, stock market corrections, currency crises, and financial instabilities very vigorously. In this paper we follow a decision tree methodology to investigate the behavior of gold prices using both traditional financial variables such as equity returns, equity volatility, oil prices, and the euro. We also use the new Cleveland Financial Stress Index to investigate its effectiveness in explaining changes in gold prices. We find that gold returns depend on different determinants across various regimes.

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Author Posting. © Elsevier Inc 2015. This article is posted here by permission of Elsevier Inc. for personal use, not for redistribution. The article was published in Financial Research Letters, vol. 13, 2015, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S154461231500032X?via%3Dihub

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Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0
Citation Information
Anastasios G Malliaris and Mary Malliaris. "What Drives Gold Returns? A Decision Tree Analysis" Financial Research Letters Vol. 13 (2015)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/atassos-malliaris/10/