Copyright (c) 2009 All rights reserved. http://works.bepress.com/adrian_e_tschoegl Recent documents in Adrian E Tschoegl en-us Mon, 21 Sep 2009 11:57:58 PDT 3600 http://works.bepress.com/adrian_e_tschoegl/40 http://works.bepress.com/adrian_e_tschoegl/40 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 06:02:44 PDT This paper argues that decimalization of currency diffused as a consequence of all three forms of isomorphism: normative, coercive, and mimetic. Furthermore, it is ambiguous as to whether the normative isomorphism was well founded. The patterns of denominations show variety by country as a consequence of a number of factors, including cultural ones. These patterns tend to follow a powers-of-two (binary) principle for smaller denominations and a purer decimal principle for larger denominations, reflecting their utility for cash transactions and for store-of-value functions respectively. Adrian E. Tschoegl Miscellaneous Physical money http://works.bepress.com/adrian_e_tschoegl/39 http://works.bepress.com/adrian_e_tschoegl/39 Tue, 10 Mar 2009 11:10:53 PDT In this paper we test monthly mean daily returns to gold over the period January 1975 to December 1984 against three definitions of seasonality. Weak evidence exists for seasonality under the second of the three definitions. However, htis is not prima facie evidence of market inefficiency as the pattern is consistent with seasonality in Eurodollar interest rates reported by other authors. Differences in the time pattern of on and offshore rates raises further questions. Adrian E. Tschoegl Gold Financial markets http://works.bepress.com/adrian_e_tschoegl/38 http://works.bepress.com/adrian_e_tschoegl/38 Tue, 10 Mar 2009 11:04:21 PDT We assess the viability of a bank's entering into retail banking worldwide, wherever regulations permit, via a review of literature and evidence on foreign direct investment in banking. Issues we discuss include the role of regulation, the costs of operating at a distance and in an unfamiliar environment, and the advantages or offsetting factors that foreign banks may possess relative to their local competitors. The factors the paper considers are uncompetitive host markets, product differentiation, economies of scale, management and technology, cost of capital, government support, and vertical integration. Adrian E. Tschoegl Multinational Corporations Foreign Banking http://works.bepress.com/adrian_e_tschoegl/37 http://works.bepress.com/adrian_e_tschoegl/37 Fri, 27 Feb 2009 14:13:08 PST The article conjectures that stop orders are automatic control limits that enable investors to react to price trends without knowing the reason for the trend. Adrian E. Tschoegl Financial markets http://works.bepress.com/adrian_e_tschoegl/36 http://works.bepress.com/adrian_e_tschoegl/36 Tue, 24 Feb 2009 10:46:59 PST On April 2, 1981, the European Option Exchange introduced the first organized exchange trading of options on spot gold. We study this new market for three months at its inception and in a parallel period a year later via various tests of rational boundary conditions. Additionally, we use call-put parity to infer implied risk free rates (IRFR's). Deviations of the IRFR's from the prevailing risk free rate permit the possibility of arbitrage through positions known as forward and reverse conversions. Our tests are modified to allow for transaction costs to more fully address the question of market efficiency. Adrian E. Tschoegl Gold http://works.bepress.com/adrian_e_tschoegl/35 http://works.bepress.com/adrian_e_tschoegl/35 Tue, 24 Feb 2009 10:40:09 PST Despite the political saliency of employment, the growing scholarly literature on financial centers contains only a few cursory estimates of employment in international banking. We use simple methods to calculate the total and marginal direct employment effects of Panama's International Banking Center. The results, which appear reasonable, suggest that international banking activities are not very labor intensive and provide even fewer jobs than many observers infer from the relatively impressive asset amounts involved. Adrian E. Tschoegl Economic Development Foreign Banking Financial centers http://works.bepress.com/adrian_e_tschoegl/34 http://works.bepress.com/adrian_e_tschoegl/34 Tue, 24 Feb 2009 10:33:23 PST Adrian E. Tschoegl Random Growth http://works.bepress.com/adrian_e_tschoegl/33 http://works.bepress.com/adrian_e_tschoegl/33 Fri, 20 Feb 2009 11:03:13 PST The Barings, Daiwa Bank and Sumitomo Corp. financial debacles in the mid-1990s suggest that management failures rather than misfortune, errors, or complexity are a major source of the risk of financial debacles. These errors are systematic and are a concommittant of the structure of trading and of human nature. Risk management systems must take these facts into account. Two years after this chapter first appeared in the first edition, John Rusnak, a trader at Allied Irish Bank's US subsidiary lost US$691m in unauthorized trading. Adrian E. Tschoegl Risk management http://works.bepress.com/adrian_e_tschoegl/32 http://works.bepress.com/adrian_e_tschoegl/32 Fri, 20 Feb 2009 10:57:26 PST We apply the analogy from biology of ecological succession that follows natural disasters as a conceptual framework for the history of foreign banks in Bulgaria. We argue that the current predominance of foreign banks is unlikely to be permanent, even without government action. The argument should also apply to other countries that have incurred sever financial collapse. In the case of Bulgaria, foreign banks have entered several times--before World War I, after that war, and after the fall of Communism in the early 1990s. The same source countries and even some of the same banks that were present before World War II or even World War I, reappear in the 1990s. Government concern with retaining control over credit limited the foreigners' role in the banking system. However, since 1997 the government has privatized almost all the major banks with the result that foreign banks now control almost 90 per cent of the banking system's assets. Adrian E. Tschoegl Multinational Corporations Foreign Banking http://works.bepress.com/adrian_e_tschoegl/31 http://works.bepress.com/adrian_e_tschoegl/31 Fri, 20 Feb 2009 10:53:03 PST Foreign banks have entered many transition and emerging economies in recent years, sometimes before economic and banking crises have developed, and often after. Today, in a number of countries foreign banks own as much as 90 per cent or more of the banking systems' assets. The question then arises as to what the effect of the foreign presence is on crises. This chapter first discusses the motives, modes and regulation of foreign banks. In analyzing foreign entry, it is important to distinguish between classic or traditional foreign banks and the innovators, which in turn one can classify either as "bettors", "prospectors" or "restructurers". Innovators enter in response to the opportunities that crises create, but this chapter argues that their entry and the reforms that accompany it erode the very conditions that drew the banks. In the long-run then, it may well be that the relative and possibly even absolute importance of foreign-owned banks in host-country banking systems may shrink. Foreign banks have in most cases not played an important role in the emergence of crises, primarily because they did not have a significant presence before the crisis began. However, foreign banks can help in the aftermath of a crisis by acting as microeconomic rehabilitators of failed banks and as instruments of system wide reform. Adrian E. Tschoegl Multinational Corporations Foreign Banking