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Unpublished Paper
Do Asymmetric Terms of Trade Shocks Affect Private Savings in a Transition Economy?
BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2003
  • Abdur Chowdhury, Marquette University
Document Type
Unpublished Paper
Language
eng
Format of Original
35 p.
Publication Date
1-1-2003
Publisher
Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition
Disciplines
Abstract

This paper examines whether terms of trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings in transition economies. A simple three-period framework is developed to show that, in the presence of binding credit constraints in bad states of nature, savings rates can be sensitive to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade. This result contrasts with the prediction of the conventional consumption-smoothing model. Empirical analysis with a dynamic panel model further confirms that while favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade have an asymmetric effect on private savings, the magnitude of the effect is relatively small. The results are robust for alternative estimators, determinants, and country groupings.

Comments

Published version.BOFIT Online, No. 3 (2003). Publisher Link.© 2003 BOFIT. Used with permission.

Citation Information
Abdur Chowdhury. "Do Asymmetric Terms of Trade Shocks Affect Private Savings in a Transition Economy?" BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2003 (2003) ISSN: 1456-4564
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/abdur_chowdhury/98/