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Article
Inflation and Inflation-Uncertainty in India: The Policy Implications of the Relationship
Journal of Economic Studies
  • Abdur Chowdhury, Marquette University
Document Type
Article
Language
eng
Format of Original
16 p.
Publication Date
1-1-2014
Publisher
Emerald
Disciplines
Abstract

Purpose – Inflation and its related uncertainty can impose costs on real economic output in any economy. This paper aims to analyze the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in India.

Design/methodology/approach – The methodology uses a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model and Granger Causality test.

Findings – Initial estimates show the inflation rate to be a stationary process. The maximum likelihood estimates from the GARCH model reveal strong support for the presence of a positive relationship between the level of inflation and its uncertainty. The Granger causality results indicate a feedback between inflation and uncertainty.

Research limitations/implications – The research results have important implication for policy makers and especially the Reserve Bank of India.

Practical implications – It provides strong support to the notion of an opportunistic central bank in India.

Originality/value – The results of the paper are of relevance not only to the monetary policy makers but also to academicians in India and other developing countries.

Comments

Accepted version. Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 41, No. 1 (2014): 71-86. DOI. © Emerald. Used with permission.

Citation Information
Abdur Chowdhury. "Inflation and Inflation-Uncertainty in India: The Policy Implications of the Relationship" Journal of Economic Studies (2014) ISSN: 0144-3585
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/abdur_chowdhury/103/